News: Uninsured patient population will continue to rise, estimates show

According to estimates from the Urban Institute, approximately 31.5 million people will be uninsured by the end of the 2020. The growth of uninsured individuals is largely due to COVID-19-related job loss, with the estimates projecting the uninsured population to increase by 10% by the end of the year.

Previous estimates from the Kaiser Family Foundation already found that hospital reimbursement of uninsured COVID-19 patients account for more than $40 billion. More Americans losing job and therefore becoming uninsured will add to this number in the coming months.

Researchers stated in the new Urban Institute report that the total number of uninsured individuals by the end of the year will represent around 11.4% of the non-elderly United States population. The report estimated that 48 million non-elderly people will be part of a household where someone loses their job due to the pandemic. Roughly 20% of the six million-person sample (or 10.1 million Americans total) are estimated to have received their insurance through their lost job.

An estimated 32% of those losing their job due to COVID-19 will switch to another source of employer coverage through a family member, 28% will enroll in Medicaid, and 6% will enroll in the non-group market through the Affordable Care Act’s marketplace coverage. The remaining 3.5 million people who have lost insurance will remain uninsured by the end of the year.

In total, researchers estimate coverage changes due to COVID-19-related job loss to total 7.3 million people to lose employer based coverage, 4.3 million more people in Medicaid, and 2.9 million people to become uninsured.

Editor’s note: The Urban Institute estimates can be found here. ACDIS’ coverage of the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates can be found here.