News: Outpatient care patient volumes projected to grow
Outpatient care patient volumes are projected to increase by 20% in the next 10 years, according to Vizient’s 2026 Impact of Change forecast. The forecast is based on disease-based and MS-DRG-based analyses and aims to provide a 10-year projection of anticipated shifts in nationwide healthcare demands.
Overall, the forecast found that inpatient growth slows while patient acuity rises and payer mix deteriorates. Adult inpatient discharges grew 5% between 2023 and 2024 but slowed to 3% between 2024 and 2025. Utilization is moderating, but growth in discharges for the insured population is being outpaced by those without traditional health insurance.
The forecast’s key projections included:
- Inpatient care patient discharges to grow 7%
- Outpatient care patient volumes projected to grow 20%
- Pediatric outpatient volume growth forecasted at 6%
- Cancer outpatient volumes are expected to grow 20%, while inpatient volumes are expected to grow 2%
- Emergency department (ED) will grow 6% overall, but growth is driven by high-acuity ED visits
- Post-acute care to grow 31%
When projected outpatient care growth is examined by service line, the highest percentages of projected growth were cardiovascular (29%), neurosciences (27%), behavioral health (22%), and cancer (20%). While most of these service line projections are in the ballpark of population-based forecasts, Vizient’s behavioral health projection is more than seven times higher (22% compared to 3%).
Pediatric outpatient volumes are also projected to increase 6% over the next decade, compared to the 3% decrease predicted by a population-based forecast. For comparison, pediatric inpatient volumes are projected to decrease 2% during that same period, which lines up with the population-based forecast.
Editor’s note: To read the full report, click here. To read additional coverage from JustCoding, click here.